This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests and I look forward to chasing the big GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first chair into it a couple weeks ago and I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30 decoration, then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I pile a fight in money games I need no less than 100 total points. Ideally more like 150 or more, but I’ll take 100-point floor together with the guaranteed win. Together with Gaethje fights, we are pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his fights even total over 200 DK points. He is the best design for accruing DraftKings points and should we utilize Edson too, then we are guaranteed a win and probably 150+ factors. Give me that all day. This is the way I will be starting my cash lineup and then I will work out the rest from there. I shall take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in cash games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the exact same at a 10-man double-up, therefore I am not shooting for first and I’d rather play it safer with my money lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play at all but Barzola ought to be a great play when he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That’s precisely what we need on DraftKings. Each takedown is 5-points and he can rack up enough to score 100+ points. If he could score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he is for sure going to acquire somebody $30k. I really do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has too much scoring potential for me to fade the chalk. I’ll likely be in accord with the area on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog drama of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here since she’s the fighter who will be searching for takedowns in this fight. I think she can find a few and she could be able to lock up a entry if that is the case. That’s her ceiling in this fight, but I like her for cash games because of her floor. I really don’t see KK finishing Waterson, therefore I believe we get three full rounds of scoring out of her. Even in a loss she could place up 30-40 DK points and in cash games which is fine. I will be using her in GPPs as well, but I don’t think she submits KK. I’d guess she puts up around ~80 DK points at a decision win when she is ready to receive the victory.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I am spreading my vulnerability out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs however Mazo is the one I’m interested in the very least. I think the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary is by getting another head kick KO. I really don’t think that’s very probable at all and I think a decision win is most likely for her. I don’t see her going for any takedowns or obtaining many/any knockdowns, therefore I do not see the way she scores highly in a decision win. I have zero lineups using Mazo this week and if I was making 100 lineups I’d still probably full fade her. Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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